Myanmar's economy: second wave or false dawn?

Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand. Bangkok. August 20, 2012. The reforms in Burma (Myanmar) leading towards a semblance of democracy, have resulted in economic sanctions being largely lifted, as the military regime loosens its grip on power. There is increasing confidence that the reforms are for real and will stick. Burma is now viewed as a land of virtually unlimited economic potential for foreign investors, and it is widely predicted that the capitalists of the world will beat a path to Burma. But, as of yet, foreign direct investment has not occurred, and the anticipated gold rush has been confined to the aid and NGO community. Burma is starting from virtually zero in the infrastructure and institutions that are needed to advance the economy. For instance, Burma has no banking system. According to the panel, there will be no economic miracles; everything will take time. Still, the Asian Development Bank believes that by 2030, Burma could be a middle income country, occupying roughly the same place in the economic ladder that Thailand occupies today. Unfortunately, the panel, although well-credentialed, was not very informative, the one exception being Dr Sean Turnell.

(Above photo left to right: Khin Maung Nyo is a Yangon based economist and journalist/editor. He is senior research fellow at the Centre for Economic and Social Development, part of the Myanmar Development Resource Institute. He is also Chief Editor of the Street View journal, New Day Journal and the Smart News Journal; Dr Sean Turnell is Associate Professor in Economics at Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia and a prolific commentator on the Myanmar economy, with op-eds in newspapers such as the Wall St Journal and is author of numerous papers and books, including 'Fiery Dragons: Banks, Moneylenders and Microfinance in Burma' (NIAS Press); Luc de Waegh is founder and managing partner of West Indochina, which advises companies interested in doing business in Myanmar. Mr de Waegh has almost two decades of experience in Myanmar, having started up the British American Tobacco (BAT) subsidiary in the country in 1993; and Aung Zaw Oo is a Yangon-based businessman and founder of Aung Naing Thitsar Co.and is joint Secretary ofthe Myanmar Rice Industry Association (MRIA). He was previously on the board of the Myanmar Federation Chamber of Commerce Industry (UMFCCI).