British Ambassador to Burma Addresses the FCCT on November 7, 2010 “Election” in Burma

Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand. Bangkok, Thailand. November 4, 2010. In three days, there will be an election in Burma, the first in 20 years. Here’s a little background.

Burma has been ruled by a military junta for almost 50 years. It is an authoritarian, criminal regime which has impoverished the Burmese people and denied them any semblance of civil or economic freedom. Twenty years ago, the generals (that’s what the ruling junta headed by Than Shwe is commonly called) held an election. They were overwhelmingly defeated by the charismatic Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel peace laureate, and her NLD party. The generals ignored the election results and arrested Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been either in jail or under house arrest most of the time since then, including right now. Because the generals have been under intense foreign pressure, especially from the EU, to do something, two years ago they adopted a constitution, which called for elections in 2010. The constitution, while creating some democratic-looking institutions like a parliament, gives the generals the right to do anything they want, and enshrines them in power indefinitely. So, now, on Sunday, November 7, the first “election” in 20 years will be held in most parts of Burma.

The articulate, candid and charming British ambassador to Burma, Andrew Heyn, spoke to a packed FCCT on Thursday, November 4, about this weekend’s parliamentary election, which is a pretty big news story in this part of the world. He said, unsurprisingly, that the “election will not be free and fair.” A Thai academic, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, put it less diplomatically when he wrote earlier this week that the “electoral process and outcome will be an organized fraud.” Why, then, the international interest in the “election.”

The fact that the secretive generals are doing anything is itself big news. The election, in and of itself, represents change and leads to speculation about why the generals are bothering with the election charade at all, one camp believing that the aging generals need the new constitution to provide a mechanism for the military to retain control after the current crop dies, and, perhaps, this election marks the beginning of a liberating economic order like in China and Vietnam, where the economy opens up, but the ruling party keeps all political control. Right now in Burma, the generals own the economy.

Another reason why this faux election might become important, is that it does put in place an institution, the parliament, which might prove more difficult to control than the generals imagine. Under the doctrine of unintended consequences, the generals may have unleashed a process that, over long periods of time, tempers their brutality and hold on absolute power. This election does have an opposition party running called the NUP, but it is questionable whether it is truly an opposition party inasmuch as it has links to the military and is approved by the generals. At any rate, if the election is not rigged, this party could become a force for some change. By the way, the only true opposition party, the NLD of Aung Sang SuuKyi, is not in the election and its leaders are in jail.

Another reason for the interest in this election is that the world loves elections, no matter how flawed. We saw that in Gaza, where Hamas won a majority, then fought a war with Fatah and took over Gaza by force. The world still says that Hamas was “democratically elected.” The generals know this and will point to the 2010 election to show that they are moving Burma along a roadmap to democracy.

Ambassador Heyn’s main message was that we have to wait and see if any change at all develops over the coming months and years. An early indication will be whether Aung is released from arrest when her current sentence expires this month, after the election, of course. In the past, she’s just been charged with another trumped-up offense and kept in jail or under house arrest. Her release this time could be the first sign of some change. According to Ambassador Heyn, the pessimistic view is that the election is just a cosmetic veneer to continued military rule, while the optimistic view is that it could be a vehicle for change over long periods of time. The Ambassador is in neither camp; his advice is to just wait and see and look for signs pointing one way or the other.

My interest in Burma stems from my two visits there. It is a beautiful country with kind and beautiful people. My heart goes out to them. Anything, no matter how small, which relieves their suffering, would be a change from the past and most welcomed. Let’s hope.