Buzz’s Journal---Buzz Predicts the Future

While the future is unknowable, if you read as much as I do, you will begin to see hints of things-to-come, from important policy-makers, influential think tanks, and in-the-know academics. Based on what I’ve started to see, here are some predictions of mine:

1. The US and Europe will accept a nuclear Iran. Forget about sanctions being effective, or an Israeli attack. Already policy wonks are writing papers about containing Iran and co-existing with an Iran which possesses atom bombs. The old cold war policies of co-existence and containment are being dusted off.

2. There will be no meaningful withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan next July, as promised. All the old arguments for the “surge” will resurface as reasons to keep the troops in place. The public is being prepared for this almost on a daily basis. There is no end in sight for America’s longest war.

3. There will be a national VAT tax, not right away, but sooner than you might think. Of course, many will become hysterical over this, but take a look at Europe and you’ll get the picture. The US will not be able to meaningfully cut spending, the budget deficit is unsustainable, and with balance of payment deficits continuing; only tax increases will prevent financial disaster. The income tax is about tapped out as a source of new revenues, so we’ll need a VAT. You’ll start to see mention of this coming out of Washington before the end of the year.

I would like to be wrong about all of this. But, hope alone is not a substitute for thinking.