Bangkok's State of Emergency

Protesters in front of Government House

Re: Bangkok Peaceful Despite State of Emergency
Tuesday September 2, 2008

After several weeks of peaceful anti-government protests, violence erupted last night between government and anti-government groups, resulting in one, possibly two, persons killed, several injured seriously, and a score of minor cuts and bruises. The protests and the clashes occurred far from where I live and are centered in one area only, around one building really, Government House, and have not affected life in Bangkok to any extent whatsoever. But the violence, which was between relatively few people, escalated the potential for strikes and serious disruptions, to the point where the prime minister, the object of the anti-government demonstrators, has declared a state of emergency in Bangkok. As far as I can tell, this means that the responsibility for maintaining civil order has passed from the police to the army.

Bangkok is normal, peaceful and will most certainly remain so. There is no fear among either Bangkokians or the expat community. The real uncertainty is how the political situation will be resolved and no one knows the answer to that question. Until there is a political compromise or accommodation of some sort, Thailand will remain unstable. The concern right now is that the important tourist industry will be adversely impacted, as will foreign investment.

I'm planning a regular day, including a piano recital tonight. All's well. I'm trying to monitor the situation by watching Thai TV, but, sadly, my level of understanding rapidly spoken Thai is not up to the task. It's back to CNN, the BBC and the Internet, for me.

Re: Day #1 under the "State of Emergency"
Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Today was the first full day living under the "state of emergency." The only real emergency is for the prime minister, who may be forced to resign. The general feeling is that he initiated the order for the state of emergency in order to preserve his own position, and that no genuine emergency exists. I agree with that view. In the meantime, the army has refused to use any force to enforce the decree and the situation remains very peaceful with all services operating normally in Bangkok. The most exciting part of life here right now is reading the morning newspapers.

Protesters spend their days taking photographs, picnicking and singing--while steadfasting refusing to leave the grounds of government house

Re: State of Emergency is a Joke

Friday, September 5, 2008

The Thai army has refused to enforce the state of emergency and maintains that this is a political situation that needs to be solved peacefully by the parties. The army has said that it will not stage another coup. The protesters remain ensconced in government house and the prime minister and cabinet are having their meetings elsewhere. There has been no return to the localized violence experienced earlier in the week, but the two sides are deadlocked. The Nation newspaper declared that the state of emergency is a joke and most observers, including me, agree.

Re: Will the Prime Minister Resign?
Saturday, September 6, 2008

Prime Minister Samak announced that he was going on the air this morning and it was widely expected that he would announce either his resignation or the dissolution of parliament, followed by new elections. Instead, he said that he would never resign, that the future of Thai democracy requires that he not give in to mob rule. I think that most people would be relieved if he did resign and let the future of democracy be left in the hands of others.

Re: State of Emergency to Go?
Sunday, September 7, 2008

The prime minister hinted today that he would revoke the state of emergency. He was rather quaint about it. He said that no one was obeying it anyway, so why have it as it served no purpose. In other words, he declared a state of emergency and no one came! His impotence at the helm of government does not seem to overly affect him.

Re: Economy Is Real Victim
Monday, September 8, 2008

My life, and the lives of other Bangkokians, remains unaffected by the state of emergency and the political turmoil. No one feels threatened by it at this point and life is as normal as ever. However, tourist arrivals are down and cancellations of conventions and group meetings have been substantial. The economy is slumping. Most business leaders blame the declaration of the state of emergency for scaring off foreign visitors. Everyone here asks: What emergency?

My neighborhood, which is in one of the main tourist and business areas, is noticeably quieter and foot traffic is manifestly lighter. Frankly, I'm enjoying it. It is peaceful and quiet, but I feel sorry for the hoteliers, vendors and business people who depend on the burgeoning tourist and business trade to make a living. The manager of my apartment, which normally has a lot of temporary visitors, told me that he has experienced a lot of cancellations due to the political situation. My floor, which only has three long-term residents, is empty except for us. I can't remember it being this low, even during the SARS scare.

Prime Minister Samak--"I won't resign"

HOT NEWS---PRIME MINISTER FOUND GUILTY
Tuesday, September 09, 2008, 5:00 PM Bangkok Time

Prime Minister Samak has been found guilty of violating the constitution by hosting a TV cooking show while serving as prime minister. The constitutional court has decreed that he must resign. As of an hour ago, Thailand has no prime minister.

What did Samak do wrong? Aside from being a life-long politician and bureaucrat, Samak likes to cook, and before becoming prime minister about nine months ago, he hosted a TV cooking and talk show called "Tasting and Complaining," which seems to have been quite popular. The Thai constitution prohibits cabinet members from working for private companies. Samak made four TV appearances after he became prime minister and was paid a very small "honorarium" for his troubles, about $575 per show, which included reimbursement for his cooking supplies and other expenses. The constitutional court found that these payments, not the nonpolitical TV appearances themselves, violated the constitutional prohibition again private employment. So he's out of a job, but for how long?

There is nothing in the constitution prohibiting the House of Representatives from voting Samak back in as prime minister immediately, and the parties making up his coalition have said that they support him. The House votes on Friday. In spite of the public pronouncements of support by the political parties, the jockeying for prime minister has begun and Samak's re-election is no sure thing. Samak was cooked by his cooking. If this all weren't so serious, Thai politics, which is pure theater, would be grand entertainment as well.

Re: Amazing Thailand---Samak is Back (Sort of)
September 11, 2008

This morning's newspapers were filled with stories that Samak was finished and that he would not be nominated to replace himself as prime minister. Yet, at about 3:00 PM today the news outlets reported that he had been nominated by his PPP party, which controls the House with several small coalition parties. Presumably, tomorrow he'll be prime minister again, the court verdict again him to the contrary notwithstanding. Other news reports say, however, that the bargaining is not over, that Samak’s support is not firm, and that we won’t know until tomorrow when the House is scheduled to meet whether Samak has made it back.

Samak's troubles are not over. In a little under two weeks from now, the Appeals Court is scheduled to decide his appeal and three-year jail sentence. He was convicted of defaming a former Bangkok deputy governor, on his TV show some two years ago. Even if his conviction in affirmed, he can appeal further to the Supreme Court.

Today He's Out
Friday, September 12, 2008

The House met this morning to elect Samak as prime minister, but there wasn't a quorum present because so many members were opposed to him, including members of his own party. The House had to adjourn. Now, Samak says that he doesn't want to be prime minister any more. He's out, I guess, at least for now.

More importantly, the head of the army has said that the state of emergency should be revoked.
It's a pretty safe bet that it will be revoked very soon, probably no later than when a new prime minister is in place.

End of a Chapter---Samak Out and State of Emergency Revoked
September 14, 2008

Due to a revolt in his own party and the refusal of the coalition parties to support him, Samak is definitely out. Additionally, the acting Prime Minister, Somchai, has revoked the state of emergency for Bangkok, an emergency which never really existed, but which did great harm to Thailand's tourist industry and economy.

Somchai is favored to be the new prime minister, to be chosen when Parliament votes on Wednesday. Guess what? Somchai is ousted Prime Minister Thaksin's brother-in-law. Thaksin and his wife, a convicted tax dodger, are in England seeking political asylum there. Although both are fugitives with arrest warrants out on them, Thaksin is still controlling Thai politics. He's good at working the phones.

End of this post. Will not be updated further.