Living Under A Military Dictatorship---The First Six Months
The First Six Months
September 18, 2006 - March 18, 2007
Coup Day 1. September 19, 2006. I was in New Jersey visiting my daughter and grandson, when I received a phone call from my secretary in Arizona, telling me that she had received a few phone calls from people concerned about me, because of the coup in Bangkok. That was the first I heard about a coup. 
My initial reaction was a question: was it a pro- or anti-Thaksin coup? Both were possibilities, but I knew that Prime Minister Thaksin was then in New York City, a few miles from me, getting ready to address the United Nations later today (Tuesday, September 19), so I assumed that the military had staged the coup to oust him. I told Patty that I knew nothing about a coup and that I didn’t yet have a TV or access to the Internet in my daughter’s new apartment. American radio being what it is, I was quite sure that I couldn’t get any real news from the inane clatter that spews from the airwaves.
I asked Patty, who was at her desk in front of a computer, to read CNN Internet news to me, which she did. There wasn’t much, but what there was, was telling. Tanks had appeared in front of several key government buildings, and someone had announced that General Sonthi, the commander of the Thai army, speaking on behalf of a just-formed Council for Democratic Reform, was in charge of the government, or something to that effect.
Patty wanted to know if I was going to return to Bangkok. I told her that I didn’t know, that I would have to wait and see what happened. I’m scheduled to leave the U.S. on October 5, and a lot could happen between now and then. I asked Patty to tell everyone that I was safe in the U.S.
I immediately drove to the Clifton public library, where I had a temporary guest card, and connected to the Internet. I had one e-mail from Bangkok, from a European friend, who returned to Bangkok from a family visit in Europe, just a few hours before the coup. He simply asked if I had heard about the coup, and told me that he was now back in Bangkok. No sooner had I read his e-mail, than he called me on my cell phone. He lives in the same area of Bangkok as I do. He said that the local TV channels were broadcasting military music and that regular programming was suspended. Also, the foreign news channels, CNN, CNBC, BBC, and Bloomberg, were completely off the air. He was getting all of his news from the Internet, the same as I. He said that there were no visible signs of a coup in our neighborhood, no soldiers, tanks, shots being fired, etc., and that the neighborhood was peaceful. Aside from the TV blackout, no resident of Bangkok could tell that anything out of the ordinary was happening. He did say that a military person had appeared briefly on TV with an announcement in Thai, which my friend didn’t understand it, after which, the military music resumed. From this, it was apparent to me that the coup was, indeed, serious.
Before I left the library, a few more details were revealed. The CDR consisted of the heads of all of the armed forces and the police, who appeared unified. The constitution, the legislature and the constitutional court were abrogated. Martial law was declared. The junta announced that a civilian government would be appointed within two weeks, and that the military would fade into the background. Elections would be held in a year, under a new constitution.
The big question in my mind at this point was: where does His Majesty the King (picture left) stand in all of this. Because of the Thai’s reverence for the King, who is considered semi- devine, no government can succeed if the King opposes it. We would have to await word from the palace.
Coup Day 2. The CDR announced that Wednesday would be a national holiday. The banks, stock exchange, schools, and all government offices would be closed, but everything else would be open and operating normally on Thursday.
Deposed Prime Minister Thaksin had by now flown from NYC to London, where he has an apartment and a mansion, and his wife and family, who had fled initially to Singapore, or so it was reported, where now in London with him. Many of his cabinet ministers, who were figureheads without any real power anyway, were said to be abroad, and two key ministers and one or two others in his government, were ordered to report to police or military headquarters, where they were detained. Importantly, the generals announced that they were granted an audience with the King, and that they would be going to the palace to report to His Majesty.
After the meeting, a picture of the generals with the King and Queen was released, which could only happen with the King’s permission. This meant to me that the King approved the coup. Later that day or the next, His Majesty appointed General Sonthi as head of the CDR, and the King requested his subjects to obey the CDR. That did it. The coup was over and the forces supporting Thaksin didn’t have a chance to mount a counter coup. Thaksin, in London, issued a mild statement saying that he hoped that democracy would soon be restored in Thailand. Although he’s a fighter, it didn’t seem that he was going to be able to fight this one out.
I received another phone call from my neighbor in Bangkok, who told me that everything was peaceful, certainly in our neighborhood, and that things were normal for a holiday, except that he thought there might be somewhat fewer people on the streets. He said that Thai TV seemed to be returning to normal, but that the foreign cable channels were still off the air, for the reason, I’m sure, that the CDR didn’t want Thaksin to have a vehicle to speak to the Thai people. However, the newspapers were publishing as normal, and the two English dailies, The Nation and The Bangkok Post, were operating their web sites, which I already knew because I was reading them from New Jersey. He also told me that a friend of his had just return to Bangkok from abroad and had experienced no problems at the airport.
Importantly, there were no reports of violence and no signs of a counter coup. Since the beginning of the coup, CNN's headline had been something like "Chaos in Bangkok as Tanks Roll In." In fact, there never was any chaos and there were only a few tanks and soldiers. This is turning out to be a model for a bloodless coup.
Coup Day 3. Yesterday's national holiday seemed to have been a success. No excitement, no violence, just a regular holiday. Local TV programming has returned to normal and the newspapers are publishing, although the coup leaders have asked the press to exercise self-restraint. Community radio stations in the north, which is the Thaksin stronghold, have been closed down and some border crossings with Myanmar (Burma) and Laos seemed to have been temporarily shut. The foreign TV channels (CNN, etc.) are still off the air.
The Thai currency, the baht, has remained steady. It initially lost some ground, but is now trading normally. No panic selling of the baht or flight of investments. 
The stock exchange is down about 1.4%, but again, no crash or panic selling. The soldiers manning the tanks are having their pictures taken with tourists, and with Thai's holding their children and pets. The soldiers have been told to smile, and a holiday atmosphere prevails. Preliminary reports in the Thai press are to the effect that the coup is popular. There are no signs that Thaksin or his supporters are planning to mount a countercoup.
Coup Day 4. The stock exchange closed for the week today, down 3% for the two days it has been open since the coup. The currency remained stable. The coup leaders say that they will appoint a civilian government by October 1, but that they will remain in power in the background. I received another telephone call from my neighbor in Bangkok. Still no changes in the neighborhood and no signs of a coup, he said. All's peaceful and normal. At a major intersection, about a 12-15 minute walk from my apartment, where there is a permanent police booth, my neighbor tells me that there are two or there soldiers there now. News reports from Thailand affirm that the coup remains popular, but that the people will insist that the military stick to its timetable for appointing a civilian prime minister and government, adopting a new constitution, and holding elections next year.
A Canadian friend of mine returned from her summer stay in Canada, and had no trouble getting into the country. However, the U.S. military in Korea has advised servicemen planning to travel to Thailand, not to come at this time. The U.S. embassy says that travelers should seriously consider their plans to come to Thailand, but did not advise against travel here, nor has there been any suggestion from the embassy that Americans should leave. The Tourist Authority of Thailand is telling tourists to come, that all is safe, and that they will have a good time, all of which are true as of now.
Coup Day 5. Another friend of mind is the head of research in Bangkok, for a major international bank. He's been basically negative on the Thai stock market based on his reading of the fundamentals. However, today he sent out his first research report since the coup, and he's turned more bullish based on market sentiment. From what I've been reading, he's in the majority of stock analysts, who almost unanimously agree that the coup is good for the Thai stock market in particular, and the economy in general.
The international press, as expected, has routinely denounced the coup as undemocratic and as an unwelcomed set back to democracy in Thailand. Western governments have been to a similar effect. However, the criticism has been muted.
Coup Day 12. The generals have followed through on their initial promise and have appointed a new civilian prime minister, who is an ex general himself. General Surayud Chulanont, the new prime minister, seems to be a highly respected professional, who has a reputation for honesty and incorruptibility. He has said that he needs two weeks to appoint his civilian cabinet. The King approved his appointment, so that ends that.
Also, the King also endorsed a new interim constitution for Thailand, the one drafted by the coup leaders. The coup leaders, now called the Council for National Security ("CNS"), retain considerable power, but a representative section of the Thai people are to draft a new permanent constitution, which will be submitted for approval in a national referendum. Elections will follow. It appears that in about a year, a democratically elected government will be in place. At this point, the generals are not exhibiting any intentions of holding on to power.
Importantly, with the new prime minister now in place, the tanks and soldiers have left the streets and returned to their barracks.
Coup Day 13. Prime Minister Surayud's first visitor was the American ambassador. Following the meeting, they met the press side-by-side. The Ambassador said the U.S. wanted to see Thailand restored to democracy as soon as possible. Prime Minister Surayad assured him that this would happen. So, it seems that the U.S., and I suspect other Western governments, will be quiet and cooperative as long as it appears that steps are taken to restore democratic rule in a year. Ambassador Boyce didn't exactly bless the coup or the new government, but he came pretty close to it.
Coup Day 14. Former Prime Minister Thaksin, from London where he has fled, has resigned from his Thai Rak Thai party, the party's executives have resigned also, and it appears that the party is now defunct---the sinking of the Thaitanic. In his resignation letter, Thaksin said nothing like "I shall return." In fact, over the past few days, most of the party's members had already resigned from the party. Maybe it's too dramatic, but I feel that this is the end of an era.
Coup Day 16. I received following e-mail from the manager of my apartment building: "Bangkok has been quite the same despite the coup, apart from a dip in business."
I leave the U.S. today and arrive in Bangkok on Saturday, October 7, 2006. I'm not expecting to notice any differences. The comment about the dip in business is contrary to the optimistic news/government reports coming out of Bangkok. However, it may be seasonal. An international travel site today reported that there had been modest reductions in hotel and resort occupancy, but nothing significant. On the economic front, the coup in Thailand poses little threat to the Southeast Asian economies, although Thai growth is set to slow after large public works projects have been shelved following the coup, the Asian Development Bank's chief economist, Ifzal Ali, said Wednesday. Both the Thai stock market and the Thai baht recovered quickly after the coup.
Coup Day 18. My First Day Back in Bangkok. October 7, 2006. I arrived early in the morning at Bangkok’s stunning new international airport, as fine an airport as I’ve been in anywhere. It opened only nine days ago, but I navigated it quickly and effortlessly. Although there haven been some continuing problems with baggage, I had no check-in bags with which to experience the baggage handling system, but I didn’t see any unusual crowds at the baggage carousels.
As I fully expected, there were no signs whatsoever that Thailand is now governed by a military dictatorship or that martial law is in effect. However, the generals are running the country now, even though there are no visible manifestations of their power. I’m sorry that I missed the tanks and soldiers, since I wanted to have my picture taken with them, as so many Thai’s did.
As soon as I got back to my apartment, I checked the TV to ascertain if the foreign news channels from the US, UK, France and Germany, were back on the air. They are. As for press censorship, the two English papers which I read daily, The Bangkok Post and The Nation, did print letters critical of the coup and news reports of foreign criticism of the generals. On the other hand, there were many allusions in the news stories as to how popular the coup is among most segments of society, which I believe is the case.
My guess is that there is no overt press censorship, but that the press is exercising a measure of self-restraint. The real test will come as time goes on. As of now, there is a new prime minister, who has selected a civilian cabinet, which awaits the endorsement of the King. As soon as that is received, we will know who will be in nominally in charge of things for the projected one-year life of the interim government. I think that the next step to watch will be when martial law is lifted. The last military coup took place in 1991, and at that time, the military lifted martial law after two months. Right now, no political activity is allowed.
On the flight from Los Angeles to Bangkok, I sat across the aisle from a woman from Arizona, who was traveling to India with her sister from Washington. I would judge her to be in her late 50's or early 60's. She was going to India to have hip surgery because she couldn't afford the $38,000-$50,000 it would cost in the U.S. She was planning to stay in India for three week's of recovery. India has the largest "medical tourist" business in the world, followed by Thailand. The hospital and outpatient clinic I go to in Bangkok, Bumrungrad Hospital, has more foreign patients than Thai's. To me it's sad that Americans have to travel abroad to obtain affordable health care.
Coup Day 19. Conceivably of more direct importance to my life than the coup, is that Villa Markets opened a supermarket on my soi (street), about 500 feet from my apartment house. I’ve been watching the construction, or lack of it, for the past 10 months, since the sign “Opening Soon” was placed on the premises. It’s not “super” in the American sense, but it is a substantial grocery store and it’s well-stocked. I’m particularly pleased that I will be able to buy fresh vegetables and fruits, to supplement the limited, but delicious fruits sold by the street vendors on my soi. I’m disappointed, though, that this Villa Market does not have any prepared foods, such as sandwiches, or a salad bar, or cut and prepackaged salads. Maybe in time it will have these and similar items, which are available at other Villa Market outlets, as well as at its competitors. Up till now, I’ve bought most things from one of three 7/11 stores on my soi, where no fresh produce is available.
Coup Day 20. The King has approved the new cabinet and its members were announced today. All are civilians, none are currently serving in the military, and all are former government officials. The cabinet is to be sworn in at 5:00 PM today by the King. Thus, Thailand takes yet another step away from military rule. The biggest criticism of the new cabinet is that the ministers are too old, their average age being 63. Well, I can't sympathaze with that.
Coup Day 22. The government announced that martial law will remain for a while, perhaps one more month. 
In the meantime, the country is experiencing its worst flooding in 60 years. Bangkok was paralyzed during the evening rush hour by a heavy downpour, which produced a great deal of local flooding. Traffic came to a halt. My soi, which floods routinely floods whenever it rains for an hour, was under water, and I had to take off my shoes, roll up my pants, and walk through about a foot of water to get back to my apartment. It was as bad flooding as I’ve seen on my soi in the six years I’ve lived here. My apartment is supposed to send a vehicle to pick up tenants at the head of the soi whenever it floods like this, but I met the apartment manager as he was about to wade through the water, and he said, rightly, that there was no sense in sending a vehicle inasmuch as traffic was simply not moving.
Coup Day 23. The real governing body of Thailand right now and for the forseeable future, is the Council for National Security (CNS) led by all the brass who organized the September 19 military takeover of the government. The CNS, through the prime minister, submitted to the King, a list of 242 people who will comprise the new National Legislative Council (NLC), which is to act as the House of Representatives, a parliament, until elections take place next year. It is doubtful that these legislators will play a big role in shaping the country.
Coup Day 28. For the past two days, talk of Thaksin's return to Thailand has dominated the local press. Apparently, even though the deposed prime minister is in London with his wife, daughter, and his many billions of dollars, he's not enjoying himself because it's too cold and he wants to come home. General Sonthi, the coup leader, spoke to him over the telephone and informed his CEOship (the name given to Thaksin since he was the CEO of one of the largest Thai enterprises and said that he would run the country like a CEO) and told Thaksin that he was free to return, but not yet. Thaksin must must wait at least until military law is lifted, said the general. The Thai's just can't get Thaksin out of their system.
Coup Day 29. It was interesting that the U.S. Embassy, in a public announcement today, which updates information on the continuing threat of terrorist actions and violence against Americans and American interests overseas, mentioned Thailand:
A series of bombings in Thailand in May and September 2006 which targeted tourist destinations, ...illustrate how terrorists exploit vulnerabilities associated with soft targets.
It's surprising the the Muslim insurgency in the south of Thailand has not generated much, if any, notice abroad. Yet, it's been going on for about two and a half years and taken the lives of about 1,700 victims. Perhaps the reason for the lack of world interest is that there hasn't been one really large bombing, rather, there are virtually daily killings of one to three victims, and some larger incidents, as alluded to by the American embassy. The affected areas are the three most southern Thai provinces which border on Malaysia, i.e., Narwatiwat, Pattani and Yala, which are about 80% Muslim-Thai. The victims so far are equally divided between Buddhists and Muslims. The fact that these Muslim-Malay provinces are 745 miles south of Bangkok, and that the violence has not spread very far north so far, is another reason that this ceaseless bleeding has not yet wrenched the fabric of Thai society. General Sonthi, the coup leader, himself a Muslim, has indicated a willingness to adopt a softer approach to the south, than that of former Prime Minister Thaksin, who is viewed as having exaccerbated the situation by a heavy-handed use of martial law and military and police force. The amazing thing about this insurgency, which is ruining the south of Thailand, is that no one has claimed responsibility for it, and there are only theories about who is behind it.
Coup Day 30. Today marked a milestone in Thailand's return to a new constitution and a democratically elected government. 
The Crown Prince (picture right) swore in the coup-appointed, but broadly representative, National Legislative Assembly. It is too early to tell how influential it will be, but the beginnings look promising. The coup still remains popular, but it's predictable that support will wain as time goes on.
On another note, a further case of an America venturing abroad to obtain affordable health care has come to my attention. A retired professor in his 70's, by no means poor and with two homes in the states, will arrive next month for three weeks of dental work in Bangkok. The cost at home would be $17,000; in Bangkok, a fraction of that.
Coup Day 39.There were two significant events this week. At the beginning of the week, Meechai Ruchupan was elected as the president of the National Legislative Assembly, after a contest with two others. Although he seems well-qualified, his selection was criticized in the press because of his presumed ties to the former Thaksin government. At the end of the week, Thaksin's powerful wife, who has now returned from exile in London, was granted an audience with the head of the King's Privy Council, General Prem Tinsulanonda. It is not known what they talked about, but the suspicion is that some kind of deal is in the works for Thaksin's return. Headlines in one of the newpapers that the 3rd army had moved troops into Bangkok to quell unrest, were denied by the government. There's certainly no signs of the military on the streets.
In general, the government is coming under increased criticism and the honeymoon looks like it might be about to end. In the meantime, the Thai stock market is thriving and the Thai baht is at a six-month high against the US dollar. This is bad news for me inasmuch as it increases my cost of living.
Coup Day 46. Nothing much as happened during the past week. Yes, Former Mr. Everything is in China playing golf and doing who knows what else. Yes, current Prime Minister Surayad has apologized to the southern Thai Muslims for their treatment under the former Toxin regime. Yes, the National Legislative Assembly has met and discussed some important issues. But, still, the coup so far seems like a big yawn, and people are beginning to question whether the coup leaders have the guts to really do or change anything.
The coup leaders are probably at a crucial stage. If they are going to retain the public confidence they now enjoy, they will have to start exposing and correcting the corruption and abuses of the prior regime and bringing the perpetrators to justice, which means, at a minimum, hurting them where it hurts most---in their pocket books. We’ll see.
To understand how politically quiet it has been here, today's (November 17, 2006) Bangkok Post's front page gives some idea. A large picture of a small boy squatting over a toilet occupies a large part of the page. The picture won first prize in the tourist attraction category (you figure that one out) at the World Toilet Expo and Forum (this year's theme: "Happy Toilet, Happy Life")held this week at Bangkok's main convention venue. The accompanying news story reports on the low attendance at the Thai Health Department's display on the history and development of toilets in Thailand. The reason: most foreign visitors (800 delegates from 30 countries attended)couldn't make out what the display was about and walked past it, because they did not understand the information, which was presented mostly in Thai, not English.
Coup Day 59. The insurgency in the south continues unabated and relegated to usually short stories on the inside news pages. The new military government has made extensive efforts to placate the Muslim south, including three visits to the area by the new prime minister, but to no effect. Because the killings, maimings and destruction are everyday occurrences for the last two and a half years, they command little attention in the rest of the country, except on those days when a really big explosion goes off. Today was typical, not more nor less than happens on any day, in what is now understood to be a war zone in the three southern most provinces bordering on Malaysia:
Blast number one took place when an army Humvee ran over a booby trap, seriously wounding five soldiers, two of them critically. The 33 pound homemade bomb was placed inside a fire extinguisher and buried in the road.
Bomb number two went off about an hour later at a food shop, causing damage to
property and injury to customers.
Bomb number three exploded 10 minutes later at a traffic island and killed a
flower vendor and wounded 22 by-standers.
A house owned by a sergeant-major was set ablaze, but his family escaped unhurt.
An ice cream vendor was shot dead while working.
Having dithered for two months and squandered the post-coup momentum in the process, the generals appear to have botched their seizure of power. They are facing the spectre of an inexorble downward slide, possibly leading to anti-military and anti-government protests down the road.
Thailand's long detour from democratic rule to supposedly strengthen its democratic system before its re-introduction has been compromised by what appears like a bungled, stumbled and fumbled coup.
Unless the CNX and the Surayud government can reverse course quickly and regain their post-coup momentum, they are likely to face dire consequences in what will be a very long year in 2007
Coup Day 75. The "big" news this week is that martial law has been lifted in 41 of Thailand's 76 provinces, including Bangkok. While the rescinding of martial law was widely expected, it was assumed that it would remain in place in the capital. While it is hard to see how this will have any major effect on life in Bangkok or elsewhere, we'll have to wait and see if anything changes. In the meantime, the government remains popular and the prime minister achieved a 73% approval rating in a recent poll.
Coup Day 79. I left Bangkok today (December 7) to spend the holidays with my family in Arizona. 
The country is aglow with celebrating the king's birthday yesterday with an enormous show of loyalty and respect at Sanam Luang, where perhaps 1 million people gathered to light yellow candles at about 7:30 PM. It was a magnificent sight, which I saw on TV and in pictures in the morning papers. I had gone in person in previous years, but I just couldn't face the crowds and the difficulty in getting to and from the royal park in front of the grand palace. In his birthday message, the king unambiguously gave his support to the military-appointed cabinet.
I would be very surprised if anything major happens during the six weeks I'm going to be in the U.S. The country is prospering, the government is relatively popular and seems on a steady course. I'll be monitoring the situation from Arziona by checking the Bangkok papers on-line and during telephone conversations with my friends in Bangkok, many of whom have remained in Thailand for the holidays.
Coup Day 87. Figure this one out. It was reported today that the consumer confidence index fell for the first time since the coup, that is, for the first time since the interim government took office in September. The CCI is a set of indices measuring public sentiment with regard to the overall economy, job opportunities and future income. This drop indicated to one commentator, that the honeymoon period with the military-installed government is over. Yet, another gage of the public mood, known as the gross domestic happiness index, increased during November for both present happiness and future happiness, as the people seemed to believe that the government could address the drug, corruption and political problems. These seemingly contradictory indicators probably mean only that it is notoriously difficult both in Thailand and the United States, to measure the public mood.
Coup Day 94. This week marks the first serious misstep of the military-appointed government, which, surprisingly, occurred in the monetary policy area, rather than in the broader political or security realms. On Monday, December 18, the Bank of Thailand announced what amounted to foreign currency controls. It was clumsily done, without any prior notice nor clear regulatory guidelines or rules.
The problem is that the value of the Thai baht has appreciated 16% this year against the US dollar. In other words, the value of the dollar in
It was down 15%, the biggest one day decline in history. What followed was an outcry from the financial markets, so by the end of the day, the Bank of Thailand reversed itself and removed at least some of the controls. By the end of the week, the market had recovered somewhat, ending the week down 8%, and down 5% for the year to date. Basically, it looks like a bunch of amateurs are in charge of the Thai economy; it was a financial debacle and only time will tell if it will have a lasting impact.
I was looking for increased security at Suvarnabhumi Airport (Picture left) and at some strategic places during the taxi ride to my apartment in downtown Bangkok, but there was none. Everything was “normal,” at least visually. Although I slept for most of the day, after traveling 27 ½ hours door-to-door, I ventured out at least one time and, again, all’s the same as when I left in early December. The promised tightened security either doesn’t exist to any great extent (my guess), or is too subtle to be observed by the public.I love the nonstop Thai Air flight from LAX to BKK. I’ve now taken two round trips on it and it makes a big difference in how I feel after such a long journey through 14 time zones and a date change. The flight time BKK-LAX is 14 ½ hours, and LAX-BKK, 17 hours 20 minutes. These flights approach the limits of civil aviation. It would seem that the flight would be interminable, but the pleasant, gracious, service-oriented Thai cabin attendants, help make the journey enjoyable. There’s plenty of room and comfort in the deluxe coach class available on this flight (a lot better than coach, but not quite as much room as in business class), and the food while okay, is served with such attention, that it creates the illusion of fine dining. I had my new iPod on board and listened to a fascinating book, Thunderstruck by Erik Larson (click here for Amazon.com’s info). By the time I finished the book, slept a little, and ate three meals, Thailand’s new, but seriously flawed, international airport, Suvarnabhumi, was in sight. The journey was helped immeasurably by the fact that there was not as much as one bump along the way.
While in Singapore, and now in Japan, Thaksin gave interviews to The Wall Street Journal and to CNN, both of which were blocked in Thailand. Last night, I was watching CNN, and images of Thaksin disembarking from a plane in Japan, were briefly flashed on the screen just long enough for viewers to tell what was being shown, and then the satellite feed was blocked and some silly pictures were shown for a few minutes while CNN carried the Thaksin story to the rest of the world. When the report was finished, the regular CNN programming resumed. UBC, the satellite giant which is the only one operating in Thailand, was dutifully following the military’s directives.
posted by Buzz at 1:27 PM
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