China’s Rise and America’s Return: Implications for South East Asia

 

Chulalongkorn University. Bangkok,Thailand. March 29, 2012. This public forum, consisting of presentations from one American and four Thai academics, was organized as part of the American Studies Program at Chula. One reason that I like listening to academics is that at least they have thought about what they say, which I contrast with the talking heads and public intellectuals infecting TV with their instant "analysis," sandwiched in between commercials, and the inanities of the host refereeing the show to produce as much contrasting blather as possible. I have entirely stopped watching these TV programs and feel more informed by their absence. 

That part of today's presentation dealing with China, i.e., its rise, needs no explanation, but America's "return" refers to the stated policy of the Obama administration, which was initiated, but less vigorously pursued by Bush, to emphasize Asia and, by implication, to attach less energy to the Middle East, is an important policy shift that has manifest implications for this part of the world, as well as America's position as  pre-eminent world power.    

(Above photo left to right)  Dr. Tiripol Phakdeewanich, Ubon Ratchanthani University; Dr. James DeShaw Rae, Sacramento State University, now teaching at China’s Foreign Affairs University; Mr. Robert Fitts, Director, American Studies Program at Chulalongkorn University;Dr. Prapat Thepchatree, Thammasat University; Dr. Surachai Sirikrai, Thammasat University.

In general, I would say that the views advanced at this forum fall into what is known as the "benign China" camp. Under this formulation, China has no ambitions to be a world power; but, yes, certainly a regional power. China has no interest in weakening the US such as by destroying our currency or economy, or weakening the beneficial security role that the US occupies in safeguarding the world, which works to China's benefit. Key to this view is that China and the US are economically interdependent and that China has no alternative to the US or to investing in dollar denominated financial assets. In short, although there are abundant ambiguities in the China-US relationship, including ambiguities and inconsistencies in China's foreign policies, under this "benign China" view, military or diplomatic conflict between the US and China are unlikely.

However, the speakers did not minimize the sources of current and potential conflicts and their impact on Asia and, indeed, the whole world, such as, US arms sales to Taiwan, US interference in South China Sea disputes between China and its neighbors, US and China spying on each other, and US military alliances in South East Asia. None of the speakers saw China and the US as potential allies, but rather as powers exercising influence in the world to their own advantages, without open conflict and with the possibility of cooperation in some areas. Underlying this view of world affairs is the assumption that we have passed from a uni-polar world to a multi-power world with no country being dominant, although the US will continue to be the preeminent global military power for the rest of this century.

Opposed to this somewhat optimistic view of China's rise and America's return, is the chool which views China as having already decided to unseat the US and to assume a dominant global role. Under this view, the US must prevent the further rise of China and view China as a threat, an enemy. This view underlies much of the rhetoric of US politicians and political races ("Obama is soft on China"), and envisions a replay of the cold war. The neocons hark this in the US and proclaim that every country in Asia must choose sides ("If you're not for us you're against us") and that Thailand, for instance, growing closer to China, as in fact it is doing, is anti-America, while ignoring the reality that the ASEAN nations have no choice other than drawing closer to China (China is now ASEAN's leading trading partner).

My personal view is that China most likely has no grand strategy to replace the US as the world's only superpower, and that the direction in which China proceeds, can be influenced by US policies and smart diplomacy. President Obama's very important speech to the Australian parliament in November, which heralded the US's return to Asia, is an important step in the right direction.